Florence’s left turn

The latest NHC forecast model isn’t looking so good for the coastal Carolinas.

Hurricane Florence 2018-09-12 0500 forecast track
Hurricane Florence 2018-09-12 0500EDT forecast track

The NHC track has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean is south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward adjustment may be warranted in future advisories.

NHC forecast discussion 2018-09-12 0500EDT

The area between Myrtle Beach, SC and Wilmington, NC seems like it will get the brunt of the storm.  As long as Florence comes ashore somewhere north of us, we should be in relatively good shape to weather the storm.

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