Author: Eugene

Tropical storm Dean was upgraded to the year’s first hurricane with today’s 5AM advisory.
From the 3 and 5 day tracks, it looks like Dean will be heading through the Carribean and towards the Gulf and shouldn’t be a problem for the East coast.

DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE…WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF FLORIDA…AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE INTERACTION WITH DEAN. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO…AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE DAYS.

The system in the Gulf of Mexico was upgraded to TD 5 last night and may become a very short lived Tropical Storm Erin. Probably won’t be much more than a windy rainy day for south Texas
From this morning’s 5AM discussion:

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. STILL…THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. EVEN IF THE DEPRESSION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY…IT WOULD ONLY HAVE A DAY OR SO OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND…THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 3…IF NOT SOONER.

Might be looking at Tropical Depression 5 soon too
From today’s 0530 Tropical Weather Outlook:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Update: The 11AM update upgraded TD4 to TS Dean.

Tropical Depression 4 is spinning up in the middle of the Atlantic and could become Tropical Storm Dean in a day or two. Probably won’t be until the middle of next week or so before there’s a reliable forecast of whether it will come by us or not. Something to keep an eye on.
Hopefully a storm doesn’t decide to pop up while I’m away on my reunion trip.