Another one heading into the Gulf

While I was out for the weekend, TS Wilma formed in the Carribbean this morning out of TD 24. Wilma’s not moving very fast at the moment, and still probably a week or so at least before there’s any reliable indication of where in the Gulf it’s going to go. Just the fact that Wilma’s heading into the Gulf seems to be enough to set off the oil speculators though.
No more names left in the 2005 hurrcane names list. With 6 weeks left in the official season, I wouldn’t be at all surprised now to see this year become a record setter with Alpha2005 before the end of November.
From this morning’s 5 AM NHC discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 235/03. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY STEERING FLOW AVAILABLE. BUT ON A LARGER SCALE… WILMA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN TO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TRACK. THE ONLY MODELS NOT CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS OR GUNA MODEL ARE THE ECMWF… CANADIAN… AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS. THE ECWMF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS TRACK THE PAST 5 DAYS IN MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT ALSO WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO EARLY AND ACCURATELY PREDICT CYCLOGENESIS. THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALSO THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT LOSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATE A GOOD THERMAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH… WHICH ONLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE PICKED UP ON. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA… CUBA…AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ALSO… THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S…. WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS