Next system on the train

From this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE

Update: Well, that didn’t take long. The 11 AM NHC update upgraded the system to TD 8.

PRESENTLY THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND IT SHOULD BE TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28C. HOWEVER…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 40W-45W NORTH OF 15N AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES…THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT PRESUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.