Preparing for Frances

Things to do:

• Back up the computer
• Collect all the things to take with us
• Secure the apartment
• Top up the hurricane kit
• Gas up the car
• Get some cash
• Find a place to evacuate to

Where we evacuate to will depend largely on where Frances decides to go. During Hurricane Floyd back in 1999, we took off to Atlanta (had to go there anyway). The wife says we should go there again this time. But if Frances goes inland and turns to follow the coast, then Atlanta might not be such a good choice.

I’m not liking the way this storm is turning. No sir, not liking it much at all. A lot can change in 5 days though. Either way I think we’re going to be in for a wet Labour day weekend.

From the 11 AM 31-Aug-04 NHC discussion:

THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIGDE. THEREAFTER…THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS. CONSEQUENTLY…SOME MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE FARTHER WEST OR CLOSER TO THE U.S. COAST THAN OTHERS. OVERALL…THE TREND OF THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS TO TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER AND NONE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF BRING THE HURRICANE TO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE KEYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT IS PRODUCED BY THE GFS WHICH BARELY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER…IT IS NORMAL FOR MODELS TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST MORE THE RIGHT…IF NECESSARY