A season for the record books

Wilma is starting to finish it’s pummeling of the Yucutan and heading off to Florida. Fortunately for those in Florida, NHC isn’t forecasting Wilma to get much stronger and to pass through pretty rapidly.
From today’s 5AM NHC discussion for Wilma:

AIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF WILMA…WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND…IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER THE EYE IS STILL QUITE LARGE…ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS…AND RAGGED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE HURRICANE EMERGED FROM NORTHEAST YUCATAN…AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER…AND SOME RESPECT FOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED ALONG A NNE-SSW AXIS WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING SHEAR…BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT WILMA’S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP…AND THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER…THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA… WHICH…ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER LOWER-LEVEL AIR… WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. SINCE THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG…THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS.

Yesterday, TS Alpha (2005) blossomed in the middle of the Carribean and will be dumping a bunch of rain over the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. After that, it looks like it will be carried out into the Atlantic along with Wilma without much additional strengthening.