Hurricane season 2024

Fresh off the presses is the National Hurricane Center‘s forecast for the 2024 hurricane seasion.

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

Interestingly enough, there haven’t been any early pre-season storms this year like there have been the last few years. Coincidentally enough though, there is an area to watch in the middle of the Caribbean from early this morning, between Cuba and Haiti. Doesn’t look like it will amount to anything though.

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large area of cloudiness and showers over the southwestern 
Atlantic is associated with a surface trough.  An area of low 
pressure is expected to form within this system a few hundred miles 
north of Hispaniola in the next day or so.  Environmental conditions 
are not expected to be conducive, however, some slight tropical or 
subtropical development is possible while the low moves 
northeastward through the weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.