Looks like the week ahead is going to be pretty wet and soggy thanks to TS Debby. Current forecast has it slowing down as it goes through FL and GA and dumping a lot of rain on the area in the process.
Tropical Storm Debby forecast 04-Aug-20245 day total rainfall forecast from Tropical Storm Debby 04-Aug-2024
After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge builds in over the Carolinas.
The cyclone will weaken after it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below tropical storm strength through 72 hours.
The second tropical storm of the season, Beryl, looks like one to keep an eye on starting the middle of next week. The forecasts show it becoming a hurricane in another day or so.
The initial motion is 280/18 kt. Beryl is on the south side of a
strong subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone
quickly westward or west-northwestward toward and through the
Windward Islands during the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is
some divergence in the track guidance as Beryl approaches a weakness
in the subtropical ridge near and east of Florida. The GFS-based
guidance calls for the storm to continue west- northwestward, while
the ECMWF and UKMET models show a more westward motion. The
consensus models lean more toward a west-northwestward motion, and
the official forecast follows this guidance. The new forecast track
has only minor changes from the previous track.
Following behind Beryl is another system that seems likely to turn into another storm to watch in a week or two
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
Interestingly enough, there haven’t been any early pre-season storms this year like there have been the last few years. Coincidentally enough though, there is an area to watch in the middle of the Caribbean from early this morning, between Cuba and Haiti. Doesn’t look like it will amount to anything though.
1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large area of cloudiness and showers over the southwestern
Atlantic is associated with a surface trough. An area of low
pressure is expected to form within this system a few hundred miles
north of Hispaniola in the next day or so. Environmental conditions
are not expected to be conducive, however, some slight tropical or
subtropical development is possible while the low moves
northeastward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
After plowing through most of Florida and causing much devastation as a Category 4 storm, Hurricane Ian is heading toward us as a much milder, but very large Category 1 hurricane.
NHC forecast track for Hurricane Ian, 30-Sep-2022 0500EDT
The tropical storm force wind field (yellow blob) is about the largest I can remember seeing from a storm. The forecast track for Ian has been shifting more east over the past few days after the storm crossed over Florida, giving it a chance to regain a bit of strength before coming on shore again. Good for us, but maybe not so much for places further north along the coast. Looking like Ian will make another landfall around the Pawley’s Island/Myrtle Beach area of SC.
Flooding is pretty much the main concern, and with a projected high tide of 9 feet, there’s definitely going to be some of that in the lower areas
The NWS Chas has upped the tide table to 9ft at the time of high tide today around 12PM. This presents significant flooding for many areas, especially if we are seeing heavy rains at that time. #chswx#Ianpic.twitter.com/oQNvnFqdfn
Not expecting anything too serious to happen here at the house. Patio furniture got moved into the garage, and we’re set to deal with any extended power outages if that happens (hopefully not).
Hurricane Dorian started making itself felt yesterday and slowly came closer overnight. The weather radio blared out a flash flood warning at 0430 that woke me up this morning so that I wouldn’t miss too much of Dorian’s approach.
Through the rest of the day, Dorian crawled by, skimming the SC coast and bringing some steady but not torrential rains, and a lot of wind at the house. The 24 hours or so of sustained winds with Dorian seemed to cause more problems than water this time, although there was still plenty of flooding going on. Twitter was full of reports of downed trees and branches, and power outages.
The generator transfer switch we had installed last year got it’s first non-testing use today. Power went out at the house around noon, unlike a lot of other areas where power went out early in the morning.
Power went out at the house about an hour ago. Will probably be out for at least a few more hours. Guess I'll work on getting caught up on QST pic.twitter.com/Ga6YEOCtJL
Around 4PM, I decided the refrigerator and freezer had been without power long enough so I got the generator set up out in the driveway, connected it to the transfer switch, and fired up the generator. Switched over the refrigerator, freezer, smoke detectors, and kitchen island (so I could run my laptop) to the generator and flipped each of them on. Everything came on like it should have. So much easier than running extension cords everywhere like we did for Florence.
Got the generator fired up. First time using the generator transfer switch aside from testing. Very handy.
The big black switches down the middle of the transfer switch switches each circuit between mains power and the generator. The white switches along the sides are off/on switches for each circuit. Fire up the generator, switch the desired circuit from line to generator, and flip the switch to on. Circuit is on generator power now. Easy peasy. I also decided each switch needed labels to make it easier to tell what circuits we wanted to switch over to the generator.
Generator transfer switch
The power came on about an hour later, so I didn’t have to be on generator power for too long fortunately (generator is loud!). Good test of getting the generator deployed and testing the transfer switch. I left the generator and power cord out for a little while longer in case power dropped out again, but it stayed on so everything got put back away for next time.
The only problem I ran into was that we had let a bunch of stuff pile up in front of the transfer switch, so I had to move a few things out of the way. A pretty minor problem, but something to avoid doing for the future.
