Category: Miscellaneous babble

Last year’s hurricane season was ended by TS Ottowhich sprouted up Nov 30, the last day of the season. This year we might see the same thing happening. From this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook:

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT THE CENTER DURING THE NIGHT.
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD.

Looks like while everybody was getting ready for Thanksgiving and filling up on tasty food, TS Delta(2005) popped up, making it the 25th named storm in this season that just won’t end. Fortunately it’s out in the middle of the Atlantic and is forecast to stay there. It’s certainly taking an odd track though.

Hope everyone celebrating Thanksgiving yesterday had a good one.
It was another trip up to the Rocky Mount, NC area this year for Thanksgiving at the wife’s aunt’s house. A nice fun time, with lots of good tasty food. Could do without the drive there, but the food was worth it. Nala was very well behaved around all the people too, and got lots of play time outside. I think every one left very fat and happy yesterday.
Once we get back home, it’ll be time to start preparing and practising for Christmas at our house.

You know, after being here for 6 years, you’d think that on a day like this, I’d have learned to pack an extra pair of socks by now.
Sigh.

The flooding on this street has actually been made worse by the new hospital construction. Before, all the extra water would fill the parking lot that used to be on the right, where part of the new hospital is going up, so the street hardly ever flooded. Now, any time it rains, this is normal.

Looks like TS Gamma is starting to fizzle out and may not last much longer. The forecast track has moved quite a bit south from yesterday too, so what remains of Gamma won’t be much more than a rain event for Jamaica.
From this morning’s 4 AM discussion:

EARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 37 KT IN A FEW SPOTS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER… WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS. AT BEST…GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS SUPPORT BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE FLIGHT LEGS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT… GAMMA IS BEING KEPT A TROPICAL STORM BUT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT… WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS
…
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN A SHEARING PATTERN ACROSS GAMMA. THE RESULT IS THAT THE CYCLONE NOW APPEARS TO BE VERTICALLY LESS DEEP THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY… AND THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AROUND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK MODELS MOVE A WEAKENING GAMMA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD… WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS FORECASTING DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION BY 96 HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH EITHER DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION OCCURRING BY 72-96 HOURS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.