Category: Miscellaneous babble

(names blurred out on purpose)

Looks like TS Ophelia (for now) is finally getting underway, although rather slowly. According to the NHC, it’s moving to the NNW slowly as a strong tropical storm, taking it away from us and toward the NC coast. Looks like it will still be lingering around being a bother for the next couple of days though.
From today’s 11 AM discussion:

THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND PRESSURE FIELD APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES A SMALL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS MOVED FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS…DURING WHICH TIME THE HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED BY AT LEAST 30-40 METERS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST…THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW OPHELIA TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT…THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE TURNING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND CROSSING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

ONCE OPHELIA NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE SSTS DROP BY ABOUT 3F-5F…THERE MAY BE SOME EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE RADIUS IF MAXIMUM WINDS…ONLY SLOW INTENSITY CHANGES UP OR DOWN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE…DURING…AND AFTER LANDFALL. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS…SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND OPHELIA COULD PEAK AT 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCUR.

Sitting over the same area for the past couple of days has resulted in Ophelia being downgraded (again) to a tropical storm, although it may strengthen again as it starts moving over the Gulf Stream.
Looks like Ophelia will just make the next few days on the breezy side for us. People in NC’s Outer Banks should start making preparations though. Ophelia’s a storm that will probably keep folks hanging on the edge of their seats for a few more days.
Fortunately there isn’t anything else out in the Atlantic that looks likely to develop in to anything. That should mean a quiet week weather-wise (aside from Ophelia).
From today’s 11AM discussion:

THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM…WHERE A MODESTLY DEEP WARM WATER MIXED LAYER…I.E. HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT…COULD INDUCE RE-STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM RE-ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE NEARING THE COAST.

BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE SO ILL-DEFINED…THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE. SOME GLOBAL MODELS…NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN…INDICATE THAT THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS…BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME.

Looks like Hurricane Ophelia (again) will leave us hanging for a couple more days yet before eventually heading towards us. Today’s 5 PM forecast has it headed towards the Wilmington, NC area as a Cat 1 hurricane and heading inland briefly before turning back out to sea. This storm’s been making more turns and wobbles than a drunk frat boy wandering down Whyte Ave…
The uncertainty in the forecast track is pretty broad though, so it’s still one to keep a close eye on. Time to start gathering up those loose items cluttering up the yard.

OPHELIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 130 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING…AND THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER DUE TO THE UPWELLING. THEREFORE…ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. IN FACT…NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE ABOVE 80 KNOTS.

Good news: Ophelia’s finally on the move after stewing in the ocean next to Florida. It’s not moving fast, but it’s started to move
Bad news: Next week could see Ophelia make a loop and turn back toward us. Need to go restock our hurricane kit.

OPHELIA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING OPHELIA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT A DAY OR TWO. THEN…A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE OPHELIA WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST. ONE BY ONE…RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC THE GFDL…AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS.