Category: Miscellaneous babble

With TD Lee dissipating, TD 14 has formed out in the middle of the Atlantic. This one looks like it will stay out in the ocean again and shouldn’t be much of a bother. The forecast does have it becoming a tropical storm in a day or so, which would be named Maria.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST.

Well, a few days ago TD 13 dissipated. But it seems now after basking in some more nice warm waters, it’s regenerated enough to become a tropical depression again. Fortunately it’s not forecast to become much more than a tropical storm (in which case it would be called Lee) and looks like it will be staying well out into the Atlantic.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BUT THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND IF IT NOT ONE NOW…IT COULD BE ONE LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

Update:With the 5PM update, the NHC has decided to name TD 13 TS Lee

THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER…THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE CONVECTION…BUT THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS/NESDIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THIS REQUIRES UPGRADING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM LEE…THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE THE OCEAN IS RELATIVELY WARM BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE.

Now that Katrina is just a big rain event, and people are getting out to assess the damage, it’s pretty major. Huge areas of just rubble fields where houses and buildings used to be in Louisiana and Mississippi. Insane amounts of water where it shouldn’t be and hundreds of thousands of people displaced. And with breaks in the levees in two places, the bowl that is New Orleans is filling up.
There are a lot of people needing help, so take a few minutes out of your day to make a donation to the Red Cross. I’m sure they’ll take whatever you can spare.

With everyone focused on Hurricane Katrina, TD 13 has popped up east of the Lesser Antilles. This one looks like it might not be of much concern though. Still early though, and plenty of time to watch it.

A WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND IS LOCATED MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS AND ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE PLACED ALONG 65 DEGREES WEST.

And a little further to the east is yet another tropical wave coming off the African coast that has potential to develop into something too. Looks like the storm conveyor belt has started back up again.

Got home the other day to see the lights on Roomba’s base station blinking and no power light on Roomba. Blinking on the base station means something’s wrong, and sure enough putting a volt meter on Roomba’s transformer brick showed fluctuating voltages. Not a good thing for something that’s supposed to be putting out DC power. I have a feeling it probably got knocked out by one of the brownouts/power surges from the storms we’ve been having lately.
Good news: I bought one of Best Buy’s 4 year service plans to go with Roomba. So I just take it in, have them fix/replace the transformer brick and Roomba’s back in action.
Bad news: Best Buy’s brick and mortar stores don’t carry Roomba, and the best they can do is issue me a refund in the form of a BestBuy gift card. But they tell me that I can use it to buy myself a brand spankin’ new Roomba from BestBuy.com!
More bad news: BestBuy.com doesn’t carry Roomba anymore.
Rats. Now all I have is a Best Buy gift card, and no Roomba. I’ll have to shell out more $ for a new Roomba from somewhere else, and find something to spend this gift card on.
Argh. If I’d known this was going to happen, I’d have just bought a replacement transformer brick to begin with.