Category: Miscellaneous babble

With Harvey spinning harmlessly away into the Atlantic, now it’s time to keep an eye out on TD 9, which according to the forecast will probably become TS Irene in a couple of days. Considering how much nice toasty warm ocean it still has to cross it shouldn’t be much of a surprise when it becomes Hurricane Irene, which the NHC forecasts it to do by the end of the weekend.

Hot on the heels of the NHC’s updated forecast comes TD8. This one is a few hundred miles WNW of the Bahamas, and looks to be heading out into the Atlantic, so nothing to worry about (unless you’re on a ship out there). It is forecast to reach tropical storm status (but not much higher) in the next day or so, which would make it TS Harvey.

Not surprisingly, the NHC’s August update is now calling for 18-21 named storms (up from 12-15 forecast at the beginning of the season) with 9-11 of those becoming hurricanes. There have been 7 so far this season, leaving 11-14 left to go for the rest of the season.
From the August update:

Even though there has already been considerable early season activity (7 tropical storms, with two becoming major hurricanes), most of the activity is still expected to occur during the climatological peak months of August-October.

The favorable conditions predicted by NOAA in their outlook issued May 16th are now in place. These conditions are expected to persist through the peak August-October months of the season. They include 1) lower surface air pressure and exceptionally warm SSTs across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, 2) an amplified subtropical ridge at upper levels across the central and eastern North Atlantic, 3) reduced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, which results from an expanded area of easterly winds in the upper atmosphere and weaker easterly trade winds in the lower atmosphere, and 4) a configuration of the African easterly jet (wavy light blue arrow) that favors hurricane development from tropical disturbances moving westward from the African coast.

As much as I enjoyed hanging out with the family in Seattle and Vancouver, it’s nice to be back home (except for the heat and gazillion percent humidity). Time to tally up the damage from the trip and get caught up on housework. Picked Nala up from the kennel this morning, and I think she was a little bit sad to go. She seemed to enjoy it there, and the kennel staff said she had a good time during her stay. She must have been really active there because she’s been napping pretty much since we got back home. I’m sure she’s grown taller in the week I’ve been gone.

Just heard that James Doohan has passed away at the ripe old age of 85. Sad news for Trek fans everywhere.