Category: Miscellaneous babble

Seems while all of us were out enjoying fireworks last night, TD3 developed into TS Cindy (as expected) and TD4 formed out in the Atlantic.
According to the 5AM discussion, Cindy isn’t expected to get much stronger before hitting the Louisiana coast somewhere.

In the meantime, there is also TD4 to keep an eye on. The forecast has this one becoming TS Dennis in the next day or so and possibly becoming the first hurricane of the season by the end of the week.
From the 5AM discussion:

THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

TD3 popped up just off the east coast of the Yucatan penninsula yesterday. This morning’s 5AM NHC discussion forecasts it heading northwest into the western Gulf of Mexico and turning into a tropical storm in a day or two, which would make it TS Cindy.
From the 5AM discussion:

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN. THE MODELS THAT FORECAST AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE…INCLUDING THE NOGAPS…GFDL…AND CANADIAN… INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE LOUISIANA OR UPPER TEXAS COASTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION BECOMES ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS…UKMET…AND THE BAM MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE…CALLING FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN.

Happy 138th! Try out the Dominion Institute‘s annual Canada Day quiz. It’s a pretty challenging one this year.

Tropical Storm Bret popped up off the coast of Mexico overnight to bring heavy rains to the southern part of the area. Already on the way inland, it should be pretty short lived. That’s two storms already this month, and still 5 months left in the season to go. At this rate it’s shaping up to be quite the season.