Category: Miscellaneous babble

September is the peak of the storm season, and seeing as we’re heading into September in a couple of days, there are plenty of things to keep an eye on according to tonight’s TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.

The new camera came today! Splurged a little more than I originally planned to get it, but I think it’ll be worth it. It’s a beast of a camera, but has a lot of cool features I’m looking forward to exploring and playing with. Haven’t taken too many pictures with it yet. Mostly spending time learning where all the buttons are and what they do. So far, image stabilization is very cool, the flash actually has a fairly decent range and it takes pretty good pictures of the dogs.
I’m all excited now 🙂

Tropical storm Dean was upgraded to the year’s first hurricane with today’s 5AM advisory.
From the 3 and 5 day tracks, it looks like Dean will be heading through the Carribean and towards the Gulf and shouldn’t be a problem for the East coast.

DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE…WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF FLORIDA…AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE INTERACTION WITH DEAN. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO…AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE DAYS.

The system in the Gulf of Mexico was upgraded to TD 5 last night and may become a very short lived Tropical Storm Erin. Probably won’t be much more than a windy rainy day for south Texas
From this morning’s 5AM discussion:

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. STILL…THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. EVEN IF THE DEPRESSION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY…IT WOULD ONLY HAVE A DAY OR SO OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND…THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 3…IF NOT SOONER.

Might be looking at Tropical Depression 5 soon too
From today’s 0530 Tropical Weather Outlook:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Update: The 11AM update upgraded TD4 to TS Dean.