Category: Miscellaneous babble

From this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE

Update: Well, that didn’t take long. The 11 AM NHC update upgraded the system to TD 8.

PRESENTLY THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND IT SHOULD BE TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28C. HOWEVER…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 40W-45W NORTH OF 15N AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES…THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT PRESUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

While everyone’s busy remembering 9/11 on this fifth anniversary (I’ve already said my thing a couple of years ago), I will point out TD 7, which looks to be following pretty much in Florence’s footsteps. Looks like Bermuda may get a double dose of storms this week, although the current 5 day track has TD 7 passing well east of the island.

Update:As expected, TD 7 became TS Gordon with the 5 PM update. Shouldn’t be of much concern to anyone except shipping.

GORDON MOST LIKELY WILL SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER WATER. IT IS ALREADY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AND SOON THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEFT BY HURRICANE FLORENCE. IN FACT…MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS GORDON SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

Listening to CBC Radio this morning, they just had a short little segment talking about tomorrow being the 40th anniversary of the premiere episode of Star Trek.
Wow. 40 years. I still find it amazing that Star Trek has endured this long and become such an institution.
I’m not nearly old enough to have seen the original airing. I only saw it in syndication in the mid/late 70s, and it quickly became one of my favourite shows. It was already an institution by then. The movies started soon after and then the TV series began. The dozens of videotapes I have of TNG episodes are probably still sitting in my parents’ basement.
I’ve always loved Star Trek. Mostly because, like a lot of sci-fi, it introduces all kinds of tantalizing possibilities for the future.
Looking forward to catching the newly remastered version of TOS. Hopefully there’s a station around here that will be showing it.

TD 6 became TS Florence earlier this morning, although there’s still about a weeks worth of watching before we need to worry about it.
On the tails of Florence is another system with some potential too. From this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

‘Tis the season.

New tropical depression (#6) in the Atlantic to watch. Still too early to tell whether this will be of any concern, but looks like it’s shaping up to become Florence soon.
From today’s 5 PM discussion:

THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE…AND THIS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT…THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.