Imablog

The second tropical storm of the season, Beryl, looks like one to keep an eye on starting the middle of next week. The forecasts show it becoming a hurricane in another day or so.

The initial motion is 280/18 kt.  Beryl is on the south side of a 
strong subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone 
quickly westward or west-northwestward toward and through the 
Windward Islands during the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is 
some divergence in the track guidance as Beryl approaches a weakness 
in the subtropical ridge near and east of Florida.  The GFS-based 
guidance calls for the storm to continue west- northwestward, while 
the ECMWF and UKMET models show a more westward motion. The 
consensus models lean more toward a west-northwestward motion, and 
the official forecast follows this guidance.  The new forecast track 
has only minor changes from the previous track.

Following behind Beryl is another system that seems likely to turn into another storm to watch in a week or two

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally 
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.