Imablog

You know, after being here for 6 years, you’d think that on a day like this, I’d have learned to pack an extra pair of socks by now.
Sigh.

The flooding on this street has actually been made worse by the new hospital construction. Before, all the extra water would fill the parking lot that used to be on the right, where part of the new hospital is going up, so the street hardly ever flooded. Now, any time it rains, this is normal.

Looks like TS Gamma is starting to fizzle out and may not last much longer. The forecast track has moved quite a bit south from yesterday too, so what remains of Gamma won’t be much more than a rain event for Jamaica.
From this morning’s 4 AM discussion:

EARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 37 KT IN A FEW SPOTS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER… WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS. AT BEST…GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS SUPPORT BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE FLIGHT LEGS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT… GAMMA IS BEING KEPT A TROPICAL STORM BUT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT… WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS
…
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN A SHEARING PATTERN ACROSS GAMMA. THE RESULT IS THAT THE CYCLONE NOW APPEARS TO BE VERTICALLY LESS DEEP THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY… AND THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AROUND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK MODELS MOVE A WEAKENING GAMMA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD… WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS FORECASTING DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION BY 96 HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH EITHER DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION OCCURRING BY 72-96 HOURS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

Looks like TD 27 resurrected itself and has become TS Gamma, making it the 24th named storm of the season. Doesn’t look like it will get much stronger as it travels up through Cuba/Florida.
From this morning’s 4 AM discussion:

A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GAMMA IS ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG 85W LONGITUDE AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD OPEN AN ALLEY FOR GAMMA TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT… A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. PLAINS STATES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MERGE AND DEVELOP INTO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY 60-72 HOURS… WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GAMMA LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA… THE BAHAMAS… AND POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE GAMMA OR KEEP IT TRAPPED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS… WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE VERTICALLY DEEP CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. AS SUCH…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION SINCE THAT MODEL MAINTAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS.
SINCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS GAMMA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD… ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.

Does anybody else out there find that Burger King ‘king’ really creepy? I just saw the newest commercial this morning where this guy and girl are riding a tandem bike through a tunnel, and on the other side, the girl’s disappeared and been replaced with the ‘king’. It’s creepy I tell you, Creepy! And those ones with the ‘king’ standing out on the guy’s lawn? It’s like some kind of bad hangover hallucination or something.