Imablog

As anticipated, TD 16 was designated TS Ophelia and just seems to be meandering around off the eastern coast of Florida. These storms that just sit there make me nervous, because they have plenty of time to soak up heat from the warm ocean and get stronger and there’s no telling where they end up going.
From today’s 11 AM discussion:

OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT OPHELIA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST…RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

TD 15 was named TS Nate last night. 3 months left in the season and only 7 names left on the Atlantic hurricane names list.
Fortunately Nate, which is forecast to become Hurricane Nate in a few days, looks to be making a U-turn and heading out to the north Atlantic. People in Bermuda might have to keep an eye on this thing though.
The tally so far:
Tropical Depressions: 1516
Named storms: 14
Tropical Storms: 9
Hurricanes: 5
Major hurricanes: 4 (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria)
The peak of the season has only just started too.
Update:: The NHC has turned the system off the coast of Florida into TD 16 with today’s 11 AM update. Forecast has it moving nearly parallel to the eastern coast of Florida and reaching tropical storm strength in the next day or so, making this one Ophelia.

As predicted, the NHC has designated the system SSE of Bermuda TD 15. The forecast has this system strengthening into a tropical storm (which would be called Nate), but not too much more than that. Looks like this one will also stay out in the ocean and not bother us.

THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE BAHAMAS…WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THIS TIME…THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PUT AN END TO THE INTENSIFICATION. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND…PEAKING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS THROUGH 48 HOURS…THEN CONSERVATIVELY PEAKING AT 50 KT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED…ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS UNDER THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

A couple of areas to keep an eye out on according to this morning’s 5:30 Tropical Weather Outlook. One near Bermuda

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

and another one off the coast of Florida

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING… AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.