Imablog

Looks like that Florida panhandle/Alabama/Louisiana coast is going to get smacked into again in a few days. It’s already a Cat 3 hurricane, and may even reach Cat 4 later tonight. Time for folks there to start battening down the hatches.
From today’s 5 PM discussion:

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA…BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN THAT AREA.

Seems while all of us were out enjoying fireworks last night, TD3 developed into TS Cindy (as expected) and TD4 formed out in the Atlantic.
According to the 5AM discussion, Cindy isn’t expected to get much stronger before hitting the Louisiana coast somewhere.

In the meantime, there is also TD4 to keep an eye on. The forecast has this one becoming TS Dennis in the next day or so and possibly becoming the first hurricane of the season by the end of the week.
From the 5AM discussion:

THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

TD3 popped up just off the east coast of the Yucatan penninsula yesterday. This morning’s 5AM NHC discussion forecasts it heading northwest into the western Gulf of Mexico and turning into a tropical storm in a day or two, which would make it TS Cindy.
From the 5AM discussion:

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN. THE MODELS THAT FORECAST AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE…INCLUDING THE NOGAPS…GFDL…AND CANADIAN… INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE LOUISIANA OR UPPER TEXAS COASTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION BECOMES ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS…UKMET…AND THE BAM MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE…CALLING FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN.