Tag: hurricane season

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Hurricane season 2024

Fresh off the presses is the National Hurricane Center‘s forecast for the 2024 hurricane seasion.

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

Interestingly enough, there haven’t been any early pre-season storms this year like there have been the last few years. Coincidentally enough though, there is an area to watch in the middle of the Caribbean from early this morning, between Cuba and Haiti. Doesn’t look like it will amount to anything though.

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large area of cloudiness and showers over the southwestern 
Atlantic is associated with a surface trough.  An area of low 
pressure is expected to form within this system a few hundred miles 
north of Hispaniola in the next day or so.  Environmental conditions 
are not expected to be conducive, however, some slight tropical or 
subtropical development is possible while the low moves 
northeastward through the weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
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Hunkering down for Hurricane Ian

After plowing through most of Florida and causing much devastation as a Category 4 storm, Hurricane Ian is heading toward us as a much milder, but very large Category 1 hurricane.

NHC forecast track for Hurricane Ian, 30-Sep-2022 0500EDT

The tropical storm force wind field (yellow blob) is about the largest I can remember seeing from a storm. The forecast track for Ian has been shifting more east over the past few days after the storm crossed over Florida, giving it a chance to regain a bit of strength before coming on shore again. Good for us, but maybe not so much for places further north along the coast. Looking like Ian will make another landfall around the Pawley’s Island/Myrtle Beach area of SC.

Flooding is pretty much the main concern, and with a projected high tide of 9 feet, there’s definitely going to be some of that in the lower areas

Not expecting anything too serious to happen here at the house. Patio furniture got moved into the garage, and we’re set to deal with any extended power outages if that happens (hopefully not).

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2007 NHC Hurricane forecast

The NHC‘s forecast for this year’s hurricane season came out today. Looks pretty similar to the forecast by the Tropical Meteorology people in Colorado. 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 strong hurricanes. It’ll be a busy season if the forecast is on track this year.

From the press release:

Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this year–showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong.

“For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

“There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will form, and if it does how strong it will be,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season.”

Time to get the hurricane kit tuned up and restocked.

hurricane-season-2007-outlook.jpg