TD2 2009

Just in time for when school starts next week we have the second tropical depression of the season.

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD…IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED HERE.