Category: Miscellaneous babble

To help burn off some of Nala’s excess puppy lab energy and get me trimmed down, I’ve decided it’s time to start up running again. People say keeping a running log helps keep you motivated. It’s something I’ve only done sporadically, usually as part of my journal writing years ago. I decided this time I would try it out, so I set up my RunningBlog as a place for me to log my runs, thoughts and observations during my running.
I think this is going to be fun!

Wilma is starting to finish it’s pummeling of the Yucutan and heading off to Florida. Fortunately for those in Florida, NHC isn’t forecasting Wilma to get much stronger and to pass through pretty rapidly.
From today’s 5AM NHC discussion for Wilma:

AIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF WILMA…WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND…IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER THE EYE IS STILL QUITE LARGE…ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS…AND RAGGED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE HURRICANE EMERGED FROM NORTHEAST YUCATAN…AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER…AND SOME RESPECT FOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED ALONG A NNE-SSW AXIS WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING SHEAR…BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT WILMA’S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP…AND THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER…THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA… WHICH…ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER LOWER-LEVEL AIR… WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. SINCE THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG…THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS.

Yesterday, TS Alpha (2005) blossomed in the middle of the Carribean and will be dumping a bunch of rain over the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. After that, it looks like it will be carried out into the Atlantic along with Wilma without much additional strengthening.

Wow, I don’t think anybody expected Wilma to become a Cat 5 hurricane overnight, but there it is. Quite possibly the strongest storm on record too. Probably won’t stay that strong for very long, but long enough for the tips of the Yucutan penninsula and the western tip of Cuba to get whacked by the edges. Looks like western Cuba will probably take the brunt of Wilma as it makes the turn towards Florida
From today’s 5AM discussion:

WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS…TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER…DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT…WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOST LIKELY…THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER…ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR…WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

With the NHC‘s 11 AM update, Wilma became the 12th hurricane of the season. Looks like those Gulf coaster’s and oil speculators can rest a little easier, but people in southern Florida will have to watch out. The current 5 day track has it curving around the western tip of Cuba and crossing the southern tip of Florida by the weekend.
From today’s 11 AM discussion:

WILMA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES…AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS OF T4.5 SINCE 09Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER…AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…BUT THE LARGE AND GROWING CIRCULATION OF WILMA SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS AIR FROM REACHING THE CORE. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX…AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE…BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER…IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

While I was out for the weekend, TS Wilma formed in the Carribbean this morning out of TD 24. Wilma’s not moving very fast at the moment, and still probably a week or so at least before there’s any reliable indication of where in the Gulf it’s going to go. Just the fact that Wilma’s heading into the Gulf seems to be enough to set off the oil speculators though.
No more names left in the 2005 hurrcane names list. With 6 weeks left in the official season, I wouldn’t be at all surprised now to see this year become a record setter with Alpha2005 before the end of November.
From this morning’s 5 AM NHC discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 235/03. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY STEERING FLOW AVAILABLE. BUT ON A LARGER SCALE… WILMA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN TO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TRACK. THE ONLY MODELS NOT CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS OR GUNA MODEL ARE THE ECMWF… CANADIAN… AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS. THE ECWMF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS TRACK THE PAST 5 DAYS IN MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT ALSO WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO EARLY AND ACCURATELY PREDICT CYCLOGENESIS. THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALSO THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT LOSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATE A GOOD THERMAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH… WHICH ONLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE PICKED UP ON. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA… CUBA…AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ALSO… THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S…. WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS