I have a mild obsession with time…more specifically, making sure my clocks are accurate and tell me the right time. I think it comes from going to schools and jobs where every single clock read a slightly different time. You could look at 10 different clocks, and get 10 different times. It always drove me nuts.
All the computers I use have some form of time synchronization software to get a reasonably accurate time from one of my servers, which in turn is synchronized daily with a Stratum 2 time server. I have two clocks that synchronize with the NIST time signal broadcast from Fort Collins, CO. They don’t display seconds though. The other clocks get synchronized to the computer as does my watch.
I’ve been pushing to have time synchronization software enabled or installed on the imaging equipment too, to make sure the images and studies get accurate time stamps (some medico-legal reasons for this). They can be notoriously bad for having inaccurate time. Once I found an control console that was off by several days. Hasn’t been all that easy though. Most vendors are always a little bit suspicious about software they don’t know about, even if it’s something that’s already on the system, and it’s always the first to get blamed if something goes wrong.
One more name left
Waaaay out in the eastern Atlantic sits TS Vince. Definitely not going to be a bother unless you live in Portugal or Spain. Just over a month and a half left in this year’s season, and Wilma is the last name left before NHC starts digging into the greek alphabet. Will we reach that record setting Alpha2005? Stay tuned and find out…
No slacking off yet
The NHC is calling this subtropical depression 22
SUBTROPICAL INSTEAD OF TROPICAL DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A LARGE-MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.
Forecast has it reaching tropical storm in a couple of days, but looks like it will be staying out in the ocean and heading to the northeast US. After all the rain they’ve had this weekend, they might get another drenching next weekend.
From today’s 5PM discussion:
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO PULSES OF SHEAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS…AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFTER THREE DAYS. THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL LOSE THE SYSTEM IN 36-72 HR. ALL OF THIS…COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…SUGGEST THE CYCLONE COULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING A LITTLE ABOVE THAT OF THE SHIPS MODEL… WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND LOW…OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL IS RIGHT ABOUT THE SHEAR… THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR.
Tammy sprouts offshore
This morning when I woke up, they were just talking about the system in the Bahamas potentially becoming a tropical depression. I get out of the shower and it gets turned into TS Tammy with a center just off the coast of Florida. Good grief.
Fortunately, it’s not forecast to have much time to get any stronger than a tropical storm, so I expect the rest of the week to be breezy and rainy.
From today’s 0730 discussion:
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST…WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/14 BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR FIXES. THE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW OVER THE GULF TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE. THEREFORE… ONLY A SUBTLE BEND TO THE WEST IN THE HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST… WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF TAMMY TO THE COASTLINE… IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY THE LANDFALL TIME OR LOCATION OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER… IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO FOCUS ON THE LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER… WHICH NECESSITATES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A LONG STRETCH OF COASTLINE. SINCE TAMMY IS UNDER MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR… ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY… AND THE ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN WILL PROBABLY PERSIST.
Do I hear 20?
There it is, looming off the eastern coast of the Yucutan penninsula. TD 20 came while I was busy learning more PET stuff. So which one becomes Stan first, 19 or 20. 19 is still heading into the mid-Atlantic, and 20 looks to be heading across the Gulf into central Mexico. NHC forecasts call for TD 19 not developing into much, but TD 20 might get stronger once it gets into the Gulf. Which one becomes Stan, and which one becomes Wilma? Anybody want to put a pool together?