Well, with Ophelia finally out of the way, there’s now Philippe, which came while I was out running errands this afternoon, and TD 18, which in all likelihood will become Rita in a day or so.
If Philippe stays on its current track, it probably won’t be a bother to us. It does have plenty of juicy warm water to travel over before reaching striking \distance, so it could become another big storm. TD 18 looks to be headed into the Gulf, which could be a concern to people trying to recover from Katrina. More weather to keep an eye on.
If TD 18 does become Rita, then there will be 4 names left on the list before having to resort to the Greek alphabet.
Another TD in the making?
With Ophelia ever so slowly making its way past NC’s Outer Banks, there is another tropical wave moving across the Atlantic that may bear watching.
From today’s 1130 Tropical Weather Outlook:
THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE…AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Do you think they’re bitter?
(names blurred out on purpose)
Ophelia finally getting underway
Looks like TS Ophelia (for now) is finally getting underway, although rather slowly. According to the NHC, it’s moving to the NNW slowly as a strong tropical storm, taking it away from us and toward the NC coast. Looks like it will still be lingering around being a bother for the next couple of days though.
From today’s 11 AM discussion:
THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND PRESSURE FIELD APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES A SMALL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS MOVED FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS…DURING WHICH TIME THE HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED BY AT LEAST 30-40 METERS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST…THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW OPHELIA TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT…THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE TURNING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND CROSSING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ONCE OPHELIA NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE SSTS DROP BY ABOUT 3F-5F…THERE MAY BE SOME EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE RADIUS IF MAXIMUM WINDS…ONLY SLOW INTENSITY CHANGES UP OR DOWN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE…DURING…AND AFTER LANDFALL. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS…SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND OPHELIA COULD PEAK AT 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCUR.
Ophelia still loitering
Sitting over the same area for the past couple of days has resulted in Ophelia being downgraded (again) to a tropical storm, although it may strengthen again as it starts moving over the Gulf Stream.
Looks like Ophelia will just make the next few days on the breezy side for us. People in NC’s Outer Banks should start making preparations though. Ophelia’s a storm that will probably keep folks hanging on the edge of their seats for a few more days.
Fortunately there isn’t anything else out in the Atlantic that looks likely to develop in to anything. That should mean a quiet week weather-wise (aside from Ophelia).
From today’s 11AM discussion:
THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM…WHERE A MODESTLY DEEP WARM WATER MIXED LAYER…I.E. HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT…COULD INDUCE RE-STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM RE-ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE NEARING THE COAST.
BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE SO ILL-DEFINED…THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE. SOME GLOBAL MODELS…NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN…INDICATE THAT THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS…BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME.
