Category: Miscellaneous babble

Looks like Hurricane Ophelia (again) will leave us hanging for a couple more days yet before eventually heading towards us. Today’s 5 PM forecast has it headed towards the Wilmington, NC area as a Cat 1 hurricane and heading inland briefly before turning back out to sea. This storm’s been making more turns and wobbles than a drunk frat boy wandering down Whyte Ave…
The uncertainty in the forecast track is pretty broad though, so it’s still one to keep a close eye on. Time to start gathering up those loose items cluttering up the yard.

OPHELIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 130 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING…AND THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER DUE TO THE UPWELLING. THEREFORE…ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. IN FACT…NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE ABOVE 80 KNOTS.

Good news: Ophelia’s finally on the move after stewing in the ocean next to Florida. It’s not moving fast, but it’s started to move
Bad news: Next week could see Ophelia make a loop and turn back toward us. Need to go restock our hurricane kit.

OPHELIA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING OPHELIA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT A DAY OR TWO. THEN…A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE OPHELIA WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST. ONE BY ONE…RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC THE GFDL…AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS.

As anticipated, TD 16 was designated TS Ophelia and just seems to be meandering around off the eastern coast of Florida. These storms that just sit there make me nervous, because they have plenty of time to soak up heat from the warm ocean and get stronger and there’s no telling where they end up going.
From today’s 11 AM discussion:

OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT OPHELIA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST…RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

TD 15 was named TS Nate last night. 3 months left in the season and only 7 names left on the Atlantic hurricane names list.
Fortunately Nate, which is forecast to become Hurricane Nate in a few days, looks to be making a U-turn and heading out to the north Atlantic. People in Bermuda might have to keep an eye on this thing though.
The tally so far:
Tropical Depressions: 1516
Named storms: 14
Tropical Storms: 9
Hurricanes: 5
Major hurricanes: 4 (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria)
The peak of the season has only just started too.
Update:: The NHC has turned the system off the coast of Florida into TD 16 with today’s 11 AM update. Forecast has it moving nearly parallel to the eastern coast of Florida and reaching tropical storm strength in the next day or so, making this one Ophelia.

As predicted, the NHC has designated the system SSE of Bermuda TD 15. The forecast has this system strengthening into a tropical storm (which would be called Nate), but not too much more than that. Looks like this one will also stay out in the ocean and not bother us.

THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE BAHAMAS…WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THIS TIME…THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PUT AN END TO THE INTENSIFICATION. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND…PEAKING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS THROUGH 48 HOURS…THEN CONSERVATIVELY PEAKING AT 50 KT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED…ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS UNDER THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.