Category: Miscellaneous babble

A couple of areas to keep an eye out on according to this morning’s 5:30 Tropical Weather Outlook. One near Bermuda

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

and another one off the coast of Florida

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING… AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Spotted this little guy clinging to the wall next to the front door.
Isn’t he cute?

With TD Lee dissipating, TD 14 has formed out in the middle of the Atlantic. This one looks like it will stay out in the ocean again and shouldn’t be much of a bother. The forecast does have it becoming a tropical storm in a day or so, which would be named Maria.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST.

Well, a few days ago TD 13 dissipated. But it seems now after basking in some more nice warm waters, it’s regenerated enough to become a tropical depression again. Fortunately it’s not forecast to become much more than a tropical storm (in which case it would be called Lee) and looks like it will be staying well out into the Atlantic.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BUT THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND IF IT NOT ONE NOW…IT COULD BE ONE LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

Update:With the 5PM update, the NHC has decided to name TD 13 TS Lee

THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER…THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE CONVECTION…BUT THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS/NESDIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THIS REQUIRES UPGRADING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM LEE…THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE THE OCEAN IS RELATIVELY WARM BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE.

Now that Katrina is just a big rain event, and people are getting out to assess the damage, it’s pretty major. Huge areas of just rubble fields where houses and buildings used to be in Louisiana and Mississippi. Insane amounts of water where it shouldn’t be and hundreds of thousands of people displaced. And with breaks in the levees in two places, the bowl that is New Orleans is filling up.
There are a lot of people needing help, so take a few minutes out of your day to make a donation to the Red Cross. I’m sure they’ll take whatever you can spare.