Category: Miscellaneous babble

TD 9 seems to be encountering a number of conditions hindering development into tropical storm status, but now is moving into warmer waters which should help it gain strength. The 5 day track shows it staying out at sea and making a turn to the north well away from the US. Hopefully it stays there.
From this morning’s 5 AM discussion:

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND GRADUALLY WARMING SE SURFACE TEMPERATURES…SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IF THE GFS/CANADIAN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DOES DEVELOP…THE SYSTEM COULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL…WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY DISSIPATED THE DEPRESSION…NOW CALLS FOR IT TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.

Finally getting the last of the boxes unpacked and the office set up. Most of the book boxes are unpacked and the books back on the shelves where they belong. The next step now is to move everything out of the bedroom and take up the carpet so we can start Phase 2 of the Flooring Project.
I have to remember to call the store and see if those transition strips I ordered have come in yet.

With Harvey spinning harmlessly away into the Atlantic, now it’s time to keep an eye out on TD 9, which according to the forecast will probably become TS Irene in a couple of days. Considering how much nice toasty warm ocean it still has to cross it shouldn’t be much of a surprise when it becomes Hurricane Irene, which the NHC forecasts it to do by the end of the weekend.

Hot on the heels of the NHC’s updated forecast comes TD8. This one is a few hundred miles WNW of the Bahamas, and looks to be heading out into the Atlantic, so nothing to worry about (unless you’re on a ship out there). It is forecast to reach tropical storm status (but not much higher) in the next day or so, which would make it TS Harvey.

Not surprisingly, the NHC’s August update is now calling for 18-21 named storms (up from 12-15 forecast at the beginning of the season) with 9-11 of those becoming hurricanes. There have been 7 so far this season, leaving 11-14 left to go for the rest of the season.
From the August update:

Even though there has already been considerable early season activity (7 tropical storms, with two becoming major hurricanes), most of the activity is still expected to occur during the climatological peak months of August-October.

The favorable conditions predicted by NOAA in their outlook issued May 16th are now in place. These conditions are expected to persist through the peak August-October months of the season. They include 1) lower surface air pressure and exceptionally warm SSTs across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, 2) an amplified subtropical ridge at upper levels across the central and eastern North Atlantic, 3) reduced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, which results from an expanded area of easterly winds in the upper atmosphere and weaker easterly trade winds in the lower atmosphere, and 4) a configuration of the African easterly jet (wavy light blue arrow) that favors hurricane development from tropical disturbances moving westward from the African coast.