Category: Miscellaneous babble

Sub-tropical Storm Laura formed out in the middle of the Atlantic bringing the named storm count to 12 so far. It may even become Tropical Storm Laura today.

To date, the score is 6 hurricanes and 6 tropical storms. Definitely on track for NOAA’s revised August forecast of 14-18 named storms and 7-10 hurricanes.

The forecast track for Laura has it staying out in the ocean and should be mainly a concern for shipping and boat traffic.

Is there a rule that says once you finish paying off a car, you start breaking it?

I was a little careless backing out of the garage this morning and had forgotten that when I pulled in last night, I was a little close to the wall on the right side of the car. When I pulled out this morning, there was some snapping and crashing and when I looked, there was no side view mirror on the right side of the car.

Crap.

Now I have to go get it fixed.

I reached a couple of significant (to me anyway) auto-related milestones today.

• Paid off the car. Woot!
• Reached 90 000 miles.

For an 8 year old car, 90 000 miles isn’t all that much. Car’s still running pretty well. Doesn’t get driven nearly as much as it used to when we first got it. Probably due for some more maintenance soon, and I think a hole is developing somewhere in the exhaust system. I’m pretty sure the brakes will need something done to them shortly as well. Needs a good cleaning too.

Well, after all the build up, the encounter with Hanna ended up being pretty anticlimactic for the Lowcountry. From what I can tell after hanging out with <a href=”http://www.jaredwsmith.com/ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener noreferrer”>Jared and others most of the day at Charleston Weather, Hanna ended up being mostly a rain event without much in the way of wind. There wasn’t much more than a nice breeze here at the house most of the day with a few periods of heavy rain that didn’t last very long. There were definitely stronger winds higher up because some of those clouds were really cruising along but none of them reached down to the ground around here. A farily steady rain through the evening kept things pretty wet though.
Ike on the other hand is still a very powerful Category 3 storm heading toward the Carribean. Looks like Ike is likely headed through the Straits of Florida and then into the Gulf of Mexico. I think unless there are some serious issues with the forecast models, the eastern coast of the US will be spared from having to deal with Ike. Cuba, Florida and the Gulf coast states on the other hand will need to watch Ike very carefully.
From today’s 5 AM advisory for Ike:

ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE PERSISTING OVER THE CYCLONE…IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AS MUCH AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE IKE MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT NOW DEPICTS SOME WEAKENING AS IKE TRAVERSES THE CUBAN COAST. OF COURSE…ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WILL EITHER ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER OR A LONGER PERIOD OF WEAKENING OVER LAND. LATER ON…CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE IKE TO MOVE IN A MORE WESTWARD FASHION. AFTERWARD…GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF/STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. IN FACT…THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS ACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS.

Hanna has been lurking on and near the Bahamas for the last few days now as a Category 1 hurricane. The NHC forecast has it starting to move along the island chain, and eventually reaching the Charleston area as possibly a Category 2 or 3 hurricane by the end of the week.

Next week, the Bahamas may be in for more of the same from Ike. Still far too early to tell if Ike will be affecting the southeast or heading into the Gulf, but it’s another one to keep a close eye on.
Then as if to remind everybody that August/September really is the peak of hurricane season, TD10 was designated with the 5AM update. it’s currently located just south of the Cape Verde Islands, but may become Josephine in the next day or so.
If you haven’t started doing so already, I’d say it’s time to start prepping things and battening down the hatches.