Category: Miscellaneous babble

While everybody’s eyes are on Gustav today, we will have Hanna to think about in the coming days. The current 5 day forecast for Hanna has it going along the Bahamas before reaching the Georgia/South Carolina coast sometime Friday as a Category 1 hurricane.
From today’s 11AM update:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT HAS DISSIPATED…AND HANNA NOW FINDS ITSELF IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV’S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW JUST NORTH OF HANNA…AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSISTING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

After Hanna goes by, TD9 (designated with today’s 11AM update), which will likely become TS Ike today or tomorrow, may be knocking on the door the week after.
From the 11AM discussion on TD9:

NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT A TROPICAL STORM…PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR…THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

A system moving out in the mid-Atlantic was designated Tropical Depression 8 at the 5AM update, and from the looks of the 5-day forecast, might become the first one to significantly affect the east coast sometime late next week. Could become a tropical storm as early as this evening, in which case it would be TS Hanna. Still too early to be certain but this definitely one to keep an eye on.
Update: A little earlier than I expected, TD8 has been upgraded to TS Hannah with the 11AM update.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST…OR 300/10…DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER…A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HANNA MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER…THE TRACK BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW HANNA WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW HANNA BEING LEFT BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER…THE TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE FORMER OF THOSE SCENARIOS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.

Here comes TD Gustav, which the NHC declared with a 2PM update. It went from being a disturbance with 30 mph winds all the way up to a tropical storm with 60 mph winds in about 8 hours. Looks like Cuba will be in for another good soaking. A few more days should show if Florida is in for some more rain.

All this rain we’ve been getting has been very welcome for my lawn, but one rather unpleasant side effect is the booming mosquito population.
While wandering through a field at Hazel Parker Playground for the latest instalment of my Lowcountry dog park series, what I thought was just weeds whipping against my legs turned out to be me being stabbed by several dozen mosquitoes. When I looked down, my legs were practically covered in mosquitoes feasting away. Needless to say, many of those didn’t survive to make use of their meal, but my legs are going to be one big itchy mosquito bite soon.
Time to dig out that mosquito repellent.

The map associated with Charleston City Paper‘s event blurb on the First Day Festival seems to be a little off the mark.