Category: Weather

Weather related posts

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Snowpocalypse 2025

15 years ago, there was Snowmageddon 2010. About 8 years after that, we got Snowpocalypse 2018. Last night, 7 years and a couple weeks later, we have Snowpocalypse 2025.

It’s a bit sketchy with n=3, but this almost seems like a trend.

It started a bit later than I expected based on the forecasts. Closer to the coast this year’s snow event started with sleet but further inland it started with ice pellets falling at the house.

Ice pellets accumulating on the ground
A light layer of ice and ice pellets on a car
Snow and ice covering a driveway and street
Car covered with a thicker layer of snow and ice

A couple hours later, it was a full on snow that went through most of the night.

By the time I got up this morning, the snow had stopped and there was a pretty significant accumulation of the stuff on the ground. There wasn’t quite as much as Snowpocalypse 2018, but still considerably more than we typically get (which is none).

Snow covered car
Snow covering the grass and roads

A ruler stuck into the snow just off the relatively sheltered front porch showed just about 3.5 cm of snow and ice accumulation.

A ruler stuck in the snow showing about 3.5 cm of snow and ice accumulation
About 3.5 cm of snow and ice accumulation

There was a little more on top of the car, probably because it was higher and a bit more out in the open, and catching a bit more snow and ice being blown around and off the roof.

A ruler stuck in the snow on top of the car showing about 5.5 cm of snow and ice accumulation
About 5.5 cm of snow and ice accumulation on top of the car

Further out in the driveway, I suspect there would be a similar amount.

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TS Debby

Looks like the week ahead is going to be pretty wet and soggy thanks to TS Debby. Current forecast has it slowing down as it goes through FL and GA and dumping a lot of rain on the area in the process.

Tropical Storm Debby forecast 04-Aug-2024
5 day total rainfall forecast from Tropical Storm Debby 04-Aug-2024

From the 11AM 04-Aug-2024 NHC forecast discussion

After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward speed.  There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in the 2-5 day time frame.  Much of the track guidance keeps the center over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge builds in over the Carolinas.

The cyclone will weaken after it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below tropical storm strength through 72 hours.

Should be an interesting week ahead.

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Tropical Storm Beryl

The second tropical storm of the season, Beryl, looks like one to keep an eye on starting the middle of next week. The forecasts show it becoming a hurricane in another day or so.

National Hurricane Center forecast map for Tropical Storm Beryl
The initial motion is 280/18 kt.  Beryl is on the south side of a 
strong subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone 
quickly westward or west-northwestward toward and through the 
Windward Islands during the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is 
some divergence in the track guidance as Beryl approaches a weakness 
in the subtropical ridge near and east of Florida.  The GFS-based 
guidance calls for the storm to continue west- northwestward, while 
the ECMWF and UKMET models show a more westward motion. The 
consensus models lean more toward a west-northwestward motion, and 
the official forecast follows this guidance.  The new forecast track 
has only minor changes from the previous track.

Following behind Beryl is another system that seems likely to turn into another storm to watch in a week or two

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally 
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
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Hurricane season 2024

Fresh off the presses is the National Hurricane Center‘s forecast for the 2024 hurricane seasion.

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

Interestingly enough, there haven’t been any early pre-season storms this year like there have been the last few years. Coincidentally enough though, there is an area to watch in the middle of the Caribbean from early this morning, between Cuba and Haiti. Doesn’t look like it will amount to anything though.

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large area of cloudiness and showers over the southwestern 
Atlantic is associated with a surface trough.  An area of low 
pressure is expected to form within this system a few hundred miles 
north of Hispaniola in the next day or so.  Environmental conditions 
are not expected to be conducive, however, some slight tropical or 
subtropical development is possible while the low moves 
northeastward through the weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
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Hunkering down for Hurricane Ian

After plowing through most of Florida and causing much devastation as a Category 4 storm, Hurricane Ian is heading toward us as a much milder, but very large Category 1 hurricane.

NHC forecast track for Hurricane Ian, 30-Sep-2022 0500EDT

The tropical storm force wind field (yellow blob) is about the largest I can remember seeing from a storm. The forecast track for Ian has been shifting more east over the past few days after the storm crossed over Florida, giving it a chance to regain a bit of strength before coming on shore again. Good for us, but maybe not so much for places further north along the coast. Looking like Ian will make another landfall around the Pawley’s Island/Myrtle Beach area of SC.

Flooding is pretty much the main concern, and with a projected high tide of 9 feet, there’s definitely going to be some of that in the lower areas

Not expecting anything too serious to happen here at the house. Patio furniture got moved into the garage, and we’re set to deal with any extended power outages if that happens (hopefully not).