While I was out being a tourist yesterday, Gert appeared just off the coast of Mexico just south of where Emily went ashore. More rain for northern Mexico.
Next up: Harvey.
Franklin makes 6!
Oy, looks like while I was busy grilling up dinner this evening TS Franklin sprouted out of that tropical wave that came off Africa last week. The forecast doesn’t show it getting much stronger than a tropical storm and making parts of Bermuda wet. These short curvy tracks are always worrisome though because it usually means the storm is caught up in some system that makes it’s track unpredictable.
From today’s 5PM discussion:
THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE TO 850 MB CIRCULATION NORTHWARD
AND THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER…ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL/500 MB CIRCULATION WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE AXIS AND STALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT…SOME OF THE MODELS MEANDER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHWARD…WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS ACTUALLY TAKE THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE…WHICH TYPICALLY SUGGESTS SLOW MOTION…THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND MAKING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP WELL EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
Lowcountry weather survival: A guide for Canadians
Ok, it’s been a few years now, and I figure I’ve experienced enough weather here to make up a weather survival guide for any other Canucks who should choose to move here.
General weather: Humid. Days of less than 70% humidity are rare. 90% to 1000% humidity are normal. When you step outside, you’ll feel like you’re either swimming or drowning. Spring and fall are hot. Summers are even hotter. No need for anything much heaver than a fall jacket.
December/January: Might need the jacket for the mornings. Sweater is fine during the day. Most days are like a cool fall day. Might get below 0C on cooler nights. On very rare occasions, you might even have to scrape the windshield of your car. Don’t expect any snow at all. If there is, it will simply be a light dusting that will barely cover the grass. This will however incite people to panic about the weather and make them race out to the stores and stock up on several days worth of provisions. Copious amounts of salt will be spread on the road. The snow wil be gone once the sun hits it. City will remain shut down for the next day or two. On the very rare night that it does snow, it’s safer to stay home. Roads will be very icy if there is snow and nobody knows how to drive. Everything will probably have shut down anyway.
February: Starting to warm up a little. Can probably go back to wearing shorts and t-shirts. Those from warmer areas of Canada might want to stick with long pants.
March/April: Ahh, summer’s beginning. Break out the shorts and sandals. Don’t forget the sunscreen. If you never burned before back home, you will here. If you park your car outside, make sure to buy one of those windshield screens for your car. Go enjoy the beach for the next few months while the days are still tolerable. It’s also the rainy season. Keep your umbrella handy.
May: The hot part of summer is beginning. Early mornings and late evenings are still tolerable.
June: It’s getting hot outside. Make sure the AC in your house and car is in good working order. Hurricane season starts. Pay attention to the Weather Channel. Did the 1st degree burns on your hands convince you to buy a windshield screen for your car?
July/August: Even hotter now. Glasses fog up going from AC-cooled buildings to the outside. Stepping outside drains all your life energy from you. You feel like collapsing into a steaming puddle of goo. You want to take off more clothes to get cool, but then you’d be naked. And then you’d get suburned. Stay inside where it’s cool for the next couple of months. Hurricane season is in full swing. Keep that umbrella handy.
September: Finally starting to cool down. It’s safe to go back outside now. Hurricane season is just past the peak, so keep an eye on the weather stations. Feels like late summer for most Canadians.
October: Starting to feel a little bit like late summer/early fall. Decent temperatures again, hurricane season is winding down. You can enjoy being outside once again. Don’t expect to see leaves changing colour. They just turn brown and fall off the trees.
November: Might need to break out the sweater now. Weather is most like mid fall.
Hurricane Isabel
Aside from September 11, much of the discussion around here is centered on where Hurricane Isabel will go. The current forecast path is not encouraging, even though it’s still a few days away from any sort of reliable forecast about impact in this area.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 AM 12-SEP-2003 discussion,
THE GFDL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL…TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST…AND DEPENDING UPON THE RUN YOU PICK…THE TURN OCCURS FARTHER TO THE WEST OR FARTHER TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND…THE UK MODEL WHICH HAS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT …MOVES THE HURRICANE FASTER AND BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE U.S. COAST IN 5 DAYS. THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING ITS TUNE FROM RUN TO RUN…IS MUCH SLOWER AND IN 5 DAYS PLACES THE HURRICANE ABOUT 450 N MI FROM THE U.S COAST. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS. FINALLY…THE NOGAPS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS UP TO 5 DAYS.
In short, I think it’s time to start assembling our hurricane kit. Even if it turns out to miss us, it’s better to be prepared than to be trying to scramble at the last minute (which everyone else is bound to be doing).
Tropical Storms
The 6th tropical storm of the season, Fabian, is brewing out in the mid Atlantic now, according to the National Hurricane Center. That means time to start getting the hurricane kit prepared. Only a few more months left in hurricane season, but unfortunately, those are the busy months. Hopefully this one doesn’t cause too much trouble. We’ll see in a few days…